Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the s/t MAs and RBOB for guidance.

Published Monday, October 19th, 2015

Introduction. The market remains range bound and pretty much stuck. However, I said on Friday that the technical picture is improving slightly and this remains the case, but it’s muted. All contracts put on value on Friday but there remain no targets higher and there’s more work to do. The improving technical picture is manifested by all contracts closing on Friday above the 5 day MAs. This was a lot better than the Thursday’s closes, which were below all the short term (s/t) MAs with the market looking vulnerable. The contracts now need to navigate the 8 and 13 day MAs before they can be looking for a move to the upper end of the range. The best early guide remains RBOB and its two key c/ps – 130.39 and 133.71. The latter is the 50% c/p of the move 119.66/147.75, and where the market more or less failed on Friday (high of 134.15), and the former is the 61.8% c/p of the same move. These are pivots – watch them. RBOB’s action – either north or south of these c/ps – will point to the next leg. Dec’ WTI is above the 5 day around 47.28 and the two 34s around 46.86 and 46.11. It would need a move confirmed by a close (m/c) below 47.28 to hint at weakness down to the 34s, but a m/c below the lower 34 to green light a move down to 45.32. Meanwhile it has resistance at the 13 day round 47.66 and the 8 day around 48.02. It would need a m/c over the latter to be looking for a move to 49.65 (100 day MA).

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Posted by Robin Bieber