PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
Introduction. The trend remains down. Targets lower on all contracts have been hit. The 5 day MAs have been consistently good sales. It is now time to be very careful. RBOB hit its target lower to 124.80 and from the last two closes below has a further objective to 117.56. However it is trying very hard to recover over 124.84, where the 5 day MA also comes in. A move confirmed by a close over 124.84 would put all targets lower on hold. The same is true, but to a lesser extent, of Heat at 137.45 and Gasoil at 420.50. In other words three of the five contracts are signalling a correction warning. This is still just a warning – it needs a move on RBOB over 124.84 to be more than that, and in this situation adjust one’s selling levels higher from the 5 day to the 8 day MAs. The stochastics are wavering but still negative. WTI has a target lower to 39.22 valid whilst RBOB is below 124.84. There is not a lot of support between current levels and 39.22. Resistance is at the 5 day MA around 41.17 then the 8 day around 42.11, a sale. Stay short for the move to 39.22 whilst RBOB is below 124.84.
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