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ICE is still more negative – NYMEX is trying to turn bullish

Published Monday, November 16th, 2015

We saw some upside correction on ICE on Friday. Whether it will turn into something more serious than just a retracement remains to be seen. Current technicals are still negative and running short positions is reasonable. In case of further strength today it might change. On the other hand, what we experienced on the NYMEX contract on Friday was more than just a correction; it seems that the trend is turning and a positive performance today will have this contract flip unreservedly bullish.

 

December ICE: Some kind of pre-weekend short-covering was on the cards on Friday and it duly happened. Further buying is pushing the price of this contract above the 5-day M/A this morning. This support is currently at 37.15 and the fact that it is below the price action makes the contract less bearish than it was on Friday. It is, however, still negative and will remain so unless the 37.70-37.95 area is broken and closed above. This are where the recent continuation lows from August 24 and 25 are together with Friday’s high and the 8-day M/A. On a break and close above them going flat is advised. The contract will only turn bullish if the 13-day M/A at around 38.32 were settled over. Given the latest technical developments there is a slight change in taking profit on short-positions.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.