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PVM Midday Report 02 November 2015

Published Monday, November 2nd, 2015

Headlines

  1. Russian crude oil output climbs to fresh post-Soviet peak in October at 10.78 mbpd
  2. Buzzard oil field shutdown scheduled for this month postponed until next year
  3. Iraqi crude exports down more than 10% in October compared with September
  4. Speculators trim net length in ICE Brent crude by almost 13% in week to Oct 27
  5. Eurozone final manufacturing PMI inches higher to 52.3 in October

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Russian crude oil production has increased to yet another post-Soviet record high in October at 10.78 mbpd from 10.74 mbpd in the previous month. Iraqi crude oil exports have registered a hefty plunge in October to 2.7 mbpd from 3.052 mbpd in September with the blame being attributed to shipping delays caused by poor weather conditions. Speculators have taken the axe to bets on rising ICE Brent crude price for the second straight week with net length down 23,743 lots to 161,196 contracts in the seven days to October 27. Meanwhile, a scheduled stoppage at Britain’s North Sea Buzzard oil field due to have taken place later this month has been postponed to next year.

Technicals: The contracts are giving up some ground and have been led lower by RBOB which has slipped below the higher of its 34 day MAs at 135.19. Attention will now turn to the assortment of s/t daily MAs which are below the current price action and must hold in order to maintain any upside potential. They are 45.52/20 WTI; 48.59/32 Brent; 148.86/47 Heat and 448.50 Gasoil. However, RBOB’s 34 day MA at 135.19 remains the most important support across the board and lower numbers will be on the cards should it be above tonight’s close.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.