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PVM Midday Report 12 November 2015

Published Thursday, November 12th, 2015


  1. Secondary sources see October OPEC crude output down 256,000 bpd at 31.38 mbpd
  2. OPEC leaves 2016 global oil demand growth and call on its oil forecasts unchanged
  3. Tehran hopes to raise crude oil production to 4.3 mbpd in 2016 following sanctions relief
  4. Iranian exports of condensate set to double to 600,000 bpd by 2017
  5. Eurozone industrial output slips by a bigger-than-expected 0.3% in September


Fundamentals: OPEC has left its forecasts for global oil demand growth and the call on its crude oil for 2016 unchanged at 1.25 mpbd and 30.82 mbpd respectively. The only noteworthy news in an otherwise uninspiring update on projections was a drop in OPEC crude oil production as seen by secondary sources of 256,000 bpd in October to 31.38 mbpd from the previous month. The decline was almost exclusively led by a fall in Iraqi and Saudi output. Iran’s deputy energy minister has claimed that it hopes to increase oil output to 4.3 mbpd next year once sanctions relief take effect. Staying with Iran, an oil official has signalled that its exports of ultra-light crude oil or condensate are expected to double from current levels to 600,000 bpd by 2017.

Technicals: The market continues to be troubled and early attempts to hold supports are being made. The key to the next leg is RBOB at the 50% c/p at 132.35. All bets south are on hold until this contract slides below here. If this occurs the following targets south would be valid – to 39.22 WTI; 44.62 Jan’ Brent; 142.97 Heat; 128.86 RBOB; and 434.00 Gasoil. In the meantime rallies to the 5 day MAs are sales – as they have been for the past week or so. The trend is down – stick with it.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.