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PVM Midday Report 17 November 2015

Published Tuesday, November 17th, 2015


  1. Libyan crude oil production dips to 375,000 bpd from 415,000 bpd at the start of November
  2. Russian oil output to hold steady next year but may fall by up to 10 million tonnes in 2017
  3. Indian demand for refined oil products climbs 17.5% y-o-y in October to 15.2 million tonnes
  4. Zew survey of German economic sentiment improves to 10.4 from 1.9 in October


Fundamentals: Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister has claimed that oil production next year will be little changed from 2015 but warned that output may fall by up to 10 million tonnes in 2017 if subdued oil prices persist. India’s demand for refined oil products rose in October by 17.5% from a year ago to 15.2 million tonnes in what was the fastest rate of growth in almost 12 years. Meanwhile, Libyan crude oil production has dipped from 415,000 bpd earlier this month to 375,000 bpd as it continues to struggle to reopen major oil ports.

Technicals: Yesterday’s rally looks to have been an upside correction in an otherwise down-trending market as the contracts bar Gasoil loss further value. The price action around the 5-day MAs will therefore continue to dictate the next leg and are so far acting as significant resistance. They are at 41.77 WTI; 45.10 Brent; 140.17 Heat; 126.37 RBOB and 427.25 Gasoil. These aforementioned levels bar RBOB’s had been tested earlier in the session but the contracts have since eased back below them in a sign that the bearish outlook is set to endure.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.