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Test of supports on ICE. NYMEX gave a buy signal.

Published Monday, November 9th, 2015

The contracts experienced some kind of pre-weekend buying as both settled higher. Whether this was short-covering or bulls going long is anyone’s guess. Daily technicals are telling us that it was probably the former on ICE as no resistance were settled above and the latter on NYMEX where the 13-day M/A resistance was broken and closed over.


December ICE: Bears who sold short on Thursday after the 38.86 support was settled below are probably still keeping their positions although the contract registered some gains on Friday. These gains, however, were not enough to make shorts concerned as neither the 8 nor the more important 13-day M/As were settled above. The former is currently at 39.13 and the latter is at 39.56. It is still advised to start covering if these levels are broken over on a sustained basis and it will make sense to go flat and even long on a close above the higher of them. In the absence of such a move bears are safe and they will remain confident that the ultimate objective on the downside will be achieved, if not sooner then later. This is the 37.90/75 range support area, the continuation lows on August 24 & 25. Covering short positions is recommended when this support area is in sight. An eventual close below this level is considered very bearish. A fall down to 37.90/75 is made likely as all the weekly M/As were settled below last week. This bearish view will only change on a close over the 13-day M/A.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.