Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Continue to watch RBOB – it holds the clues

Published Wednesday, December 2nd, 2015

Introduction. The technical picture still lacks harmony. The problem is RBOB’s strength. If it wasn’t so strong and was as weak as the rest the outlook would be simple, and there would be valid targets lower on WTI to 40.41; Brent to 43.15; Heat to 134.54; and Gasoil to 390.00. These potential objectives may yet be achieved, but RBOB is doing a lot to prevent the move lower bedding in. All contracts, less RBOB, are below the short term (s/t) MAs, and all contracts, less WTI and RBOB, have negative stochastics. This is not technical harmony and one should tread with caution. The clues to the next direction lie with RBOB. It needs to stay over the 5 day MA, around 134.29 to keep upside potential, and needs to move and close (m/c) over 137.31 to have further upside. Only a m/c below the 8 day, around 132.75 would be negative. Watch these levels carefully – they are the most important on the board today. If RBOB de-links from the rest, which is very possible for a short period of time, then the immediate outlook for the rest is negative.

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Posted by Robin Bieber