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PVM Midday Report 01 December 2015

Published Tuesday, December 1st, 2015

Headlines

  1. Iraqi crude oil exports surge to record high of 3.365 mbpd in November
  2. US crude oil output slips for third straight month in September to 9.326 mbpd
  3. Platts assessed Dubai crude eases to seven-year low; Jan’ Brent-Dubai  EFS at $3.10/bbl
  4. Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improves to 52.8 in November
  5. Brazil suffers bigger-than-expected 3Q GDP contraction of 1.7%

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Iraqi crude oil exports climbed to a record high of 3.365 mbpd in November on production of 3.657 mbpd as volumes recovered sharply from the previous month where poor weather hampered oil loadings. This comes as a Reuters survey puts OPEC production at 31.77 mpbd in November which was up 130,000 bpd from October. Figures from the EIA have revealed that US oil output dipped by 20,000 bpd to 9.326 mbpd on the month in September, less than the projected 100,000 bpd decline, in what was the third straight monthly fall. Meanwhile, Platts assessed Dubai crude has fallen to its lowest in seven years as the relative strength of the Brent complex sends the January Brent-Dubai EFS up to $3.10/bbl.

Technicals: The crudes are struggling a bit, but an increasingly de-linked RBOB is in orbit. The latter has hit its 100 day MA at 136.66 and recent high at 137.31. It has no further target higher until it moves and closes over 137.31. It is well above the 5 day MA around 134.19, and must stay that way to keep the upside potential intact. WTI is below all the s/t MAs with the lowest around 42.05. It needs to recover over here or it will have a target lower to 40.41. Brent is similar. It needs to move back over the lowest s/t MA around 44.80 to negate a target lower to 43.15. Heat has no target lower whilst over 137.45. Gasoil needs to hold over 405.50. The market is holding whilst RBOB is strong. Keep exposure limited whilst there is a lack of harmony.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.