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PVM Midday Report 17 December 2015

Published Thursday, December 17th, 2015


  1. Nigerian oil minster sees Brent above $45/bbl next year; aims to boost oil output to 2.4 mbpd
  2. President Putin claims forecasts of Brent averaging $50/bbl in 2016 are too optimistic
  3. Japanese crude oil imports climb 4% y-o-y in November to 3.34 mbpd
  4. Latest IFO survey of German business sentiment in surprise dip
  5. UK retail sales rebound 1.7% in November; surpass expectations of a 0.5% increase


Fundamentals: A Nigerian oil official has revealed that it expects oil prices to average above $45/bbl next year and it hopes to boost crude oil production to 2.4 mbpd. Conversely, President Putin claimed that the 2016 Brent forecast of $50/bbl used as a basis for the Russian fiscal budget is too optimistic. Meanwhile, Japanese demand for crude oil remains robust after oil import data pointed to a 4% rise in November from the same period a year ago to 3.34 mbpd.

Technicals: The trend is down and rallies to the 5 and 8 day MAs are selling opportunities. There are targets lower on WTI to 34.53; Brent 36.33/20; Heat to 108.74; RBOB to 119.62; and Gasoil to 323.50. Shorts should be run to here whilst the contracts remain below the 5 day MAs, and in RBOB’s case below 124.76. The price action is likely to be erratic and cause some wrong footing. It is still advised to remain on the side of the trend.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.