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PVM Midday Report 18 December 2015

Published Friday, December 18th, 2015


  1. Russian crude oil exports to Asia rise 23% y/y in Jan-Nov period to 1.3 mbpd
  2. Saudi crude oil exports to China set to remain unchanged in 2016 at just over 1.1 mbpd
  3. Russia not considering potential for coordination with OPEC – Energy Minister
  4. Eurozone current account surplus narrows by more than 30% on the month in October


Fundamentals: Russia’s Energy Minister has claimed that OPEC has lost its ability to balance the oil market and as such it was not considering the potential for any coordination with the cartel aimed at reversing the decline in oil prices. His comments come after figures revealed that Russia has captured a larger share of the Asian crude market with sales to the region up 23% on the year in the January-November period to 1.3 mbpd. Staying with Asia, Saudi crude exports to China are expected to remain almost unchanged for a third straight year at just over 1.1 mbpd in 2016.

Technicals: The downtrend has bedded in on every contract bar RBOB. There are targets lower on WTI to 34.53 (hit this morning); 36.20 Brent; 108.74 Heat; and 323.50 Gasoil. Run shorts to these objectives. RBOB meanwhile is above all the short term MAs and looks like heading for the 34 day MA at 129.29. The trend is down – stick with it and don’t be long.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.