Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

Follow us

PVM Midday Report 23 December 2015

Published Wednesday, December 23rd, 2015

Headlines

  1. OPEC sees global oil demand in 2020 and 2040 at 97.4 and 110 mbpd respectively
  2. Russian exports of gasoil and fuel oil jump by over 10% on the month in November
  3. Saudi king hints at commitment to additional energy exploration
  4. UK 3Q GDP revised down to 0.4% from initial estimate of 0.5%
  5. French consumer spending slumps 1.1% in Nov in wake of Paris attacks

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: The latest medium and long-term forecasts from OPEC have pointed to an extended period of oil oversupply and limited upside for prices. The organisation increased its forecast of global oil demand in 2020 to 97.4 mbpd while its equivalent estimate for 2040 was trimmed by 1.3 mbpd to 110 mbpd. It projects the call on its oil to stand at 30.70 mbpd in 2020, which is less than the forecasted call for next year, rising to 40.70 mbpd in 2020 in what would represent an increase in the cartel’s market share to 37% from the current level of 33%. With regards to oil prices, it sees the OPEC Basket price rising to $70/bbl in 2020 and $95/bbl by 2040.

Technicals: The contracts are making a lurch higher towards the s/t MAs amid a bout of pre-holiday short covering and as such represent good selling opportunities. Sells rallies to the following targets: 36.70 (8) and 37.41 (13) on WTI; 37.06 (8) on Brent; 111.02 (8) on Heat; 121.98 (5) and 122.90 (8) on RBOB and 336.25 (8) and 348.75 (13) on Gasoil. This strength will likely prove temporary and downside targets are expected to soon be revisited. The trend remains down – stick with it and be patient.

to read the rest of the report, please click here

Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.