Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

Follow us

Very vulnerable – downtrend likely to continue

Published Thursday, December 31st, 2015

Introduction. The trend is down – stick with it. Yesterday’s rally fell apart at RBOB’s 34 day MA – the key resistance to watch – and various short term (s/t) MAs on the rest. This was a classic downtrend performance – wrong footing promising rallies to the s/t MAs that fail. The odds are that the New Year will bring in softer numbers, and that we have not seen the lows yet – far from it! However, it is still advised to keep exposure limited until the New Year as holiday moves on low volumes are often misleading. Having said that the charts are pointing to lower numbers where supports will be breached.  For seriously lower numbers to be green lighted certain key pivots need to be broken. These are on WTI at 35.35; Brent 36.20/35.95; Heat 108.13; RBOB 121.27 then 119.51; and Gasoil 323.50 then 313.25. The levels in red are very long term c/ps going back to 1998 and will be explained more fully on the first day of the New Year – suffice to say that they are critical levels and if they fail we can expect price Armageddon (i.e. much lower!!). In the meantime, every contract closed below the s/t MAs and most have negative or wavering stochastics – none of which is encouraging.

to read the rest of the report, please click here

Posted by Robin Bieber