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Watch the 13-day M/A on ICE. NYMEX should test supports.

Published Thursday, December 3rd, 2015

It was suggested in yesterday’s report to go long on ICE on a test of the 8-day M/A support. Those who were running reduced short positions on NYMEX were advised to go fully short again if last Friday’s low was settled below. Both moves duly happened therefore higher numbers on ICE and lower numbers on NYMEX are anticipated.


January ICE: The trend is still up as far as technicals are concerned. The 8-day M/A was flirted with but not closed below so there is nothing wrong with being long – at least not for now. The 13-day M/A support which is currently at 38.16 is being put under pressure. To be consistent with yesterday’s recommendation cutting losses on long positions is still logical if this support is settled below. Not only liquidating long positions but selling short is advisable on such a move. In that case it will be entirely reasonable to expect the test of the recent lows of 37.01 and 36.95 for two reasons. Firstly because all the daily short-term M/As will be above the price action and secondly because the daily slow stochastics will have flipped south. In case the contract starts trading higher today profit on fresh long positions ought to be taken if or when the range resistance at 39.07 and the 34-day M/A at 39.21 are approached. Such an advance will be very likely on an intra-day break above the highest of the daily short-term M/A, the 5-day at 38.55.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.