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PVM Midday Report 04 January 2016

Published Monday, January 4th, 2016


  1. Reuters poll sees 2016 WTI and Brent average price down at $49.75/bbl & $52.52/bbl
  2. Russian crude oil output climbs to fresh post-Soviet high in December at 10.83 mbpd
  3. Iraqi crude oil exports slip from record peak in November to 3.215 mbpd in December
  4. North Sea Brent loadings planned at 124,140 bpd in Feb, down from 135,000 bpd in Jan
  5. Speculators pare back bets on rising ICE Brent prices by 2,362 lots in week to Dec 29


Fundamentals: Russian crude oil production rose to yet another post-Soviet high in December at 10.83 mbpd which was up from 10.78 mbpd in the previous month. Conversely, Iraqi crude oil exports eased slightly over the same period with loadings to foreign buyers seen at 3.215 mbpd in December which was down from the record high of 3.365 mbpd in November but still up 455,000 bpd y-o-y. The latest Reuters poll has forecast WTI and Brent to average $49.75/bbl and $52.52/bbl respectively in 2016 which is -$3.98/bbl & -$5.34/bbl from last month’s projections. Meanwhile, net speculative length in ICE Brent crude fell by 2,362 lots or 1.42% in the week to December 29 to 163,672 – a six week low.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.