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Published Tuesday, February 9th, 2016

Introduction. The market is in trouble. Since the recovery/correction slowed down it has been moving in a range where betting on higher or lower numbers has been pretty thankless. However the contracts have now started to slide, because there has been an absence of bullish follow through, and now all but Heat and Gasoil are below the short term (s/t) MAs. Heat and Gasoil are still holding the 13 day MAs. This should mean that the contracts will head for the recent lows around the bottom of the range. Using this logic there are targets lower on WTI to 29.40; Brent to 32.23 and RBOB to 94.10. Heat has no target lower whilst it holds the 13 day around 103.49, and Gasoil whilst above 296.75. The lack of bullish headlines and more positive news has caused gravity to erode value. This is likely to continue. RBOB has hit new lows on both the March and April contracts. The market generally is in trouble whilst March RBOB is below 96.70 and April below 119.76. Watch these two key pivots carefully today – they are the most important resistances on the board, and whilst below here the market is very vulnerable. WTI has a target lower to the recent low at 29.40. This is valid whilst it is below the s/t MAs, where the lowest is around 30.92 (5 day) then 31.22 (8 day) followed by 31.48 (13 day). A move confirmed by a close (m/c) below 29.40 would be bearish and green light a further objective to 27.56. This contract is in a negative condition whilst below the 5 day round 30.92.

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Posted by Robin Bieber