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PVM Midday Report 01 February 2016

Published Monday, February 1st, 2016


  1. Iraqi crude oil output dips to 3.9 mbpd in January; oil exports averaged 3.285 mbpd
  2. Speculators increase ICE Brent NSL to highest since May 2015 in week to Jan 26
  3. Iranian crude oil capacity set to increase by 160,000 bpd next month
  4. North Sea Ekofisk crude loadings in March planned at 290,000 bpd; similar to February
  5. Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dips to 52.3 in January from 53.2 in the previous month


Fundamentals: Iraq has revealed that its crude oil production eased in January to 3.9 mbpd from a record high of 4.13 mbpd in December, adding that its crude oil exports averaged 3.285 mbpd in the first month of this year. Iran has announced that its total oil output capacity is set to increase by 160,000 bpd next month following the completion of expansion plans at two existing oilfields. Rumours of an OPEC/non-OPEC meeting continue to do the rounds with the latest update offered by an OPEC delegate stating that no date has been set and the ball is now in Russia’s court. Elsewhere, speculators betting on stronger oil prices rediscovered their mojo in the week to the 26th January after increasing NSL in WTI and ICE Brent by 15,716 and 52,801 lots respectively.

Technicals: The contracts look vulnerable and are for the most part hovering just above the s/t daily MAs. WTI has fallen below its 5-day MA at 32.69 and must ensure a close above key support at the 2009 low of 32.40 to prevent further weakness. Brent has its 8-day MA at 33.31 as important support while Heat needs to hold 102.54 (c/p) or it risks plunging to its 13-day MA at 98.50. Keep an eye on RBOB’s 13 at 107.75 – a dip below will have the others also heading south. Gasoil is someway off its key upside target of 312.25 and looks more likely to test its range support at 296.75.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.