Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Lower, but keep an eye on RBOB for guidance

Published Thursday, March 31st, 2016

Introduction.  The contracts are once again in trouble and struggling. The main prop – RBOB – fell apart yesterday afternoon and has closed below all the short term (s/t) MAs. This now means that all the contracts are below the s/t MAs, and also have negative stochastics that have displayed pronounced bearish divergence. The outlook is grim whilst below the s/t MAs. In addition all contracts failed at the s/t MAs on the rally yesterday, and these s/t MAs are selling opportunities on further rallies. There are targets lower on WTI to 37.66; May Heat to 116.09; May RBOB to 142.83; and Gasoil to 343.00. June Brent needs a move confirmed by a close (m/c) below 39.77 (100 day MA) to green light a leg lower to 37.83. WTI is in trouble whilst below the 5 day MA around 38.11. It failed at the 8 and 13 day combo on the rally yesterday. These are around 39.51/67 and are sales on rallies today. The target lower to 37.66 is valid whilst below the 5 day round 38.66. A m/c below 37.28 (34 day) would green light the next leg lower to 36.17, a c/p.

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Posted by Robin Bieber