PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
Introduction. The market has completed the most perfect bearish slingshot (s/s) move lower. The plunge below the short term and the 34 day MAs on Friday caused an immediate s/s dump to the 55 day MAs. This happened on the same day – Friday – on the crudes, and on Heat and Gasoil yesterday. There are no further targets lower until the 55s are moved and closed below, and the 200 on RBOB. They are on WTI at 46.52; Sep’ Brent 47.86; Aug’ Heat 143.75 then 141.93 (continuation); Sep’ RBOB 148.49 (200 day) then 147.39 (100 day); Gasoil 425.50 and 423.25. RBOB is way below the 55s and has found support at the 200 day MA target at 148.49 and then the lower 100 day at 147.39. The key technical indicators are negative. Both the daily and weekly stochastics are negative and the latter has turned at high levels suggesting more bearish “meat on the bone”. The 55s are the key support today – watch them. M/cs below would green light further targets lower.
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