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PVM Midday Report 24 June 2016

Published Friday, June 24th, 2016


  1. Britain shocks world with vote to leave the EU, PM Cameron to step down by October
  2. Scottish leader signals preparations are being made for second independence vote
  3. Russia trims planned July oil exports from Novorossiisk port to 2.35 million tonnes
  4. Venezuelan oil minister hints at 200,000 bpd increase in domestic oil output by year-end


Fundamentals: Oil prices have been sent reeling by a surging dollar which is adding 2.6% against a basket of major currencies following Britain’s decision to end its 40 year membership with the European Union. Away from the Brexit-induced slump, Russia has trimmed planned oil exports from its Black Sea port of Novorossiisk for July to 2.35 million tonnes. Exports from the oil ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are expected to remain steady next month at 4 million tonnes and 2.4 million tonnes respectively. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil minister has made the rather dubious claim that the country’s crude oil production will rise by up to 200,000 bpd by the end of the year.

Technicals: Technicals are playing second fiddle to the fallout of today’s historic vote and the contracts have so far fallen hard below all the daily short and medium-term MAs. Nevertheless, the complex is holding above important supports made up of assorted correction points and should prevent further loss of value so long as they remain below the price action. They are 46.80 WTI; 47.14 Brent; 140.25 Heat; 152.06 RBOB and 471.00 Gasoil. Upside potential will only be reinstated on settlements above the highest of the daily MAs. They are 49.34 WTI; 50.08 Brent; 150.54 Heat; 158.10 RBOB and 445.75 Gasoil.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.