Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the s/t MAs. The 5s are key pivots.

Published Wednesday, June 29th, 2016

Introduction. The contracts have held and rallied from the 55 day MA key supports and targets.  RBOB has done similar but at the 200 day MA. In short, the market has completed a price cycle at the 55s and it’s time to wait and be patient. Yesterday’s rally needs to be seen in perspective – strong support in the form of the 55s had held and the 5 day gap was large, particularly on RBOB. The odds were on a rally and the contracts are still shaking out from Friday and Monday’s dump. By last night’s closes the 5 day gap had evaporated to virtually nothing. This morning all contracts, bar RBOB, have poked their noses over the 5s, around 48.02 WTI; 49.43 Sep’ Brent; 148.40 Aug’ Heat; and 434.00 GasoilAug’ RBOB’s 5 day is around 153.47 and is worth keeping an eye on. The 5s need to be watched. A sustained move over this morning would make tests of the 8 and 13s likely. There is no serious upside until the 8 and 13s are moved and closed (m/c) over. In addition, watch the stochastics. They are still negative on all but Heat but there are hints of bullish divergence developing. Some more strength today would confirm this and make further gains likely. The 5s are the best barometer of this – m/cs back below the 5s would point to a failure; m/cs above would indicate more recovery yet.

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Posted by Robin Bieber