Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Key support held. Watch the 5s on Heat and RBOB.

Published Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Introduction. Although the trend is down the contracts are holding key supports and, for the moment, there are no targets lower. This remains the case whilst the strong support holds. This is on WTI at 44.62/42 (c/p and 200 day MA); Brent 45.96/68 (100 and 200 day MA); Heat 141.25 (range); RBOB 137.27 (c/p) then 134.82 (200 day MA); and Gasoil 411.00 (200 day). Four of the five contracts have held the very strong 200 day as the key support – these do not put in appearance that often but when they do they are worth watching very carefully. They have made a habit of holding the market at the least expected times. Given RBOB’s tendency to deliver early warning signals its 200 day MA at 134.82 is probably the most important support on the board today. Its low yesterday was 27 points above the 200 day MA support. Note also that RBOB’s stochastic is negative – along with the rest – but it is wavering at the bottom end of the chart, and this may be an early warning signal that a change of direction developing. This would only be confirmed by moves confirmed by closes (m/c) over the 5 day MAs. Watch Heat and RBOB carefully today. They are testing the 5 day MAs and moves over would give the market a good chance of further recovery – at least to the 8 day MAs.

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Posted by Robin Bieber