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PVM Midday Report 05 July 2016

Published Tuesday, July 5th, 2016


  1. Niger Delta Avengers claim responsibility for fresh oil attacks
  2. US recoverable oil reserves exceed those in Saudi Arabia and Russia – Rystad
  3. Caixin/Markit Chinese services PMI rises to 11-month high of 52.7 in June
  4. Eurozone services PMI slips to 17-month low of 52.8 in June
  5. BoE reduces banks’ capital buffer restrictions in bid to boost liquidity


Fundamentals: The militant group responsible for a spate of attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria’s delta region have claimed responsibility for two separate attacks carried out late last night against the state-owned oil company and a western oil major. Elsewhere, a report has revealed that the outstanding reserves of recoverable crude oil in the US is estimated at 264 billion bbls – more than those in Saudi Arabia and Russia which are thought to stand at 256 billion bbls and 212 billion bbls respectively.

Technicals: The market is in trouble and the move below the short-term MAs has greenlighted a “trapdoor” move to the 55s in most cases. These 55s are on WTI at 47.90 and 47.07 WTI; Brent 49.10 and 48.46; Heat 145.31 then 143.75; and Gasoil 430.75 then 429.25. A move below the higher green lights a modest leg south to the lower 55, but a m/c below that would be bearish and activate targets lower. RBOB gave the signal for weakness and has failed to hold the 100/200 combo at 148.70/38, but is above the c/p at 145.95. The daily and weekly stochastics are negative. The contracts are completing a price cycle lower at the 55s – be careful there, but sell m/cs below.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.