PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
Published Tuesday, July 12th, 2016
Headlines
Oil
Fundamentals: In giving its first take on the global oil supply/demand balance for next year, OPEC has predicted that oil demand growth will reach 1.15 mbpd in 2017 which is marginally down on the 1.19 mbpd forecast for this year. Moreover, it expects the call on its oil will rise by more than 1 mbpd to 32.98 mbpd and projects that the contraction in non-OPEC crude output will ease considerably to 110,000 bpd next year compared to the 880,000 bpd decline forecast for this year. Meanwhile, secondary sources have revealed that the organisation’s crude output, which now includes new member Gabon, rose by 264,000 bpd in June. Elsewhere, long-term forecasts released by China’s National Petroleum Corporation have shown that it expects Chinese oil consumption to rise to 670 million tonnes by 2027 at an annual growth rate of 2% and its annual oil output to increase to 230 million tonnes by 2030.
Technicals: The market is in a volatile corrective mode. The clue early today for some recovery was Heat and RBOB testing their 5 day MA resistances. The message was that a move over them would create a move to the 8s. The key now to this correction higher is the action at the 8s. These are on WTI around 47.27; Brent 48.57; Heat 145.22; RBOB 142.71; and Gasoil 426.00. The most important 8 day is RBOB’s around 142.71. A move confirmed by a close over here would point to further strength on this rally. The stochastics are wavering, but have moved positive on RBOB. This recovery may well have more to go (higher) yet. Watch RBOB’s 8 day for guidance.
to read the rest of the report, please click here