PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
Introduction. The contracts are struggling and look like testing lower numbers – namely down to the 55 day MAs, on all but RBOB, which looks like heading for the 200 day MA. One needs to be careful on any early move after a holiday. The key to any immediate recovery from this early weakness would be the action around the 8 day MAs around 48.25 WTI; 49.63 Brent; 149.11 Heat; and 434.75 Gasoil. Moves back over these levels would point to the contracts trying to hold. RBOB had looked fragile for a bit and being below the short term MAs and failing to move over the 5 day was the signal for weakness. This is developing now and RBOB looks like heading for the 200 day MA at 148.35. It is in trouble whilst below the 5 day MA around 150.65. Meanwhile the rest look like heading for the 55s at 48.02 WTI; 49.10 Brent; 145.76 Heat; and 430.75 Gasoil. The contracts are making a “trapdoor” move lower to support and are vulnerable.
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